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ForumsDosing & ProtocolsPK/PD modeling for tirzepatide — receptor occupancy calculations

PK/PD modeling for tirzepatide — receptor occupancy calculations

SarahChen_PharmD Thu, May 14, 2026 at 11:20 PM 12 replies 453 viewsPage 1 of 3
SarahChen_PharmD
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May 14, 2026 at 11:20 PM#1

Read the primary source rather than the write-up and the two do not agree, so here is what is actually in it.

SURMOUNT-1 landed around 20.9% mean weight loss at 15mg over 72 weeks, against roughly 15% for semaglutide 2.4mg in STEP 1. Different trials, different populations, so the comparison is indicative rather than decisive — but SURPASS-2 was a genuine head-to-head and it pointed the same way.

Where I think it is weakest: the comparator does most of the work in how this gets reported, and it is not the comparator most people think they are citing.

What I am trying to establish is how much of the tirzepatide advantage is the GIP component and how much is simply that the dose ladder goes higher in receptor-occupancy terms. Practical detail welcome, however dull — the duller the better.

Note on sourcing:
Figures above are from the primary publication rather than the press summary. If a number here disagrees with one you have, post yours and we will work out which of us is reading a secondary source.
44 14Dr.ObesityLA, NurseKim_ATL, paul_denver and 41 others
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Dr.ObesityLA
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May 15, 2026 at 12:19 AM#2
SarahChen_PharmD said:
SURMOUNT-1 landed around 20.9% mean weight loss at 15mg over 72 weeks, against roughly 15% for semaglutide 2.4mg in STEP 1.

Agreeing with SarahChen_PharmD, and the qualification matters more than the agreement. The GIP arm is doing real work rather than padding the label. GIP receptor agonism appears to improve adipose insulin sensitivity and lipid handling, and — counter-intuitively — GIP signalling in the CNS reduces nausea rather than adding to it, which is why tolerability at high total agonism is better than the GLP-1-only comparison would predict. SURPASS-2 is the cleanest head-to-head: tirzepatide beat semaglutide 1mg at every dose tier.

If somebody has the primary source to hand I would rather cite it than paraphrase it.

43 13KarenAZ_mom, zoe_NC, Dr.ObesityLA and 40 others
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Dr.NateNeph
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May 15, 2026 at 1:18 AM#3
SarahChen_PharmD said:
SURMOUNT-1 landed around 20.9% mean weight loss at 15mg over 72 weeks, against roughly 15% for semaglutide 2.4mg in STEP 1.

Pushing back on SarahChen_PharmD here. The "tirzepatide is simply better" summary irritates me. It is better on mean weight loss, and the cardiovascular outcome evidence is far thinner than semaglutide's. If the reason for treating is cardiovascular risk rather than weight, the evidence base points the other way.

42 12SteveThurs, B12Beth, RickReta_CO and 39 others
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Dr.CardioMD
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May 15, 2026 at 2:17 AM#4

This one has a reasonably settled answer, so here it is. Steady state is faster than people expect: half-life about five days, so you are at plateau in roughly three to four weeks rather than five. That matters when you are deciding whether a dose step has finished expressing itself.

Last edited: May 15, 2026 at 8:17 AM
41 11roxy_nash, tony_orlando, Dr.NephBHM_UK and 38 others
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LeilaHI
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May 15, 2026 at 7:51 AM#5
Dr.ObesityLA said:
The GIP arm is doing real work rather than padding the label.

Agreed, and the adaptation point cuts both ways: tachyphylaxis to gastric emptying is why tolerability improves, and it is also why people who were relying on physical fullness feel the effect fade while the appetite effect is still working.

Last edited: May 15, 2026 at 12:51 PM
40 10amsterdam_pete, LondonLisa, mike_nyc and 37 others
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