Pancreatitis risk assessment — anyone have experience?

Dr.PeteFamMed said:

It is worth asking what the claim would look like if it were false.

This is exactly what I could not find anywhere else.

Adding the clinical framing, because it changes how the question reads. The version of this that has an answer is narrower than the version being asked. Narrow it and it becomes tractable; leave it broad and the thread will produce nine confident and incompatible replies.

Dr.Martinez said:

Start from the measurement rather than the conclusion.

I read this differently. The confidence in this thread is running ahead of the evidence, and I would rather the uncertainty were stated than smoothed over because it is unsatisfying.

The figures, for anyone assembling their own picture. Give anything pharmacological four weeks before you judge it, and give anything measured weekly a four-point rolling average before you call it a trend.

Moderator note: the sourcing question belongs in the vendor section and has been split out. No action needed from anybody.