Does anyone else feel like they are in a secret club now

Dr.GutHealth said:

One habit that pays for itself: post the method alongside the number.

That is correct as far as it goes, and here is where it stops going. Yes, and the corollary is less popular: if the reasoning holds, it also holds where it produces an answer we do not like.

That is the short version; the long version is somebody else's post.

Dr.GutHealth said:

One habit that pays for itself: post the method alongside the number.

Saving this. It is the first explanation that did not require me to already understand it. Adding it to my notes with a link back to this thread.

Adding the clinical framing, because it changes how the question reads. The honest answer is that the effect is real, the magnitude is contested, and the individual variation is larger than either. Those three things can all be true at once, and most arguments here are two people holding different parts of that.

Dr.RenalNash said:

The honest answer is that the effect is real, the magnitude is contested, and the individual variation is larger than either.

Same pattern here, and in the same order. I had assumed I was the exception until I read this.

Reporting back.

Update — my curve sits below the published mean and the explanation is that the trial arm had support I do not have. That was reassuring rather than otherwise.