I keep finding that the number in the press summary and the number in the paper are not the same number, and the difference is always in the same direction.
A quick sanity check on any figure quoted here: is it mean or median, is it intention-to-treat or completers, and what was the comparator. Three questions, and they resolve most disagreements in these threads.
The question I want answered is how to read a result like this without either dismissing it or over-reading it, since the summaries all read like press releases.
I have searched first, so if this is covered somewhere point me at it and I will read it.
This one has a reasonably settled answer, so here it is. Relative and absolute effects need reading together. A 20% relative reduction on a high baseline risk is a large absolute benefit; the same relative figure on a low baseline risk is a small one, and press summaries almost always quote the relative number because it is bigger.
Dr.AddMedPHL said:Relative and absolute effects need reading together.
Forest plot interpretation for the the trial evidence meta-analysis: when reading the pooled estimate, pay attention to:
The the trial evidence meta-analysis shows a pooled RR of 0.73 (95% CI 0.72-0.83), I²=31%. This is a robust and consistent effect.
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View Resultsanders_CPH said:I keep finding that the number in the press summary and the number in the paper are not the same number, and the difference is always in the same…
This matches mine closely enough to be worth saying so. The gap between trial results and real-world results is consistent and it is not fraud. Trial participants get titration by protocol, scheduled contact, free drug and dietetic support; removing that infrastructure costs a few percentage points every time it has been measured. When your own curve sits below the published mean, that is the likeliest explanation before anything about you or your material.
Clinical perspective, offered as context rather than as advice.
Bayesian meta-analysis perspective on the trial evidence: traditional frequentist meta-analyses report point estimates and confidence intervals. Bayesian approaches provide probability distributions that are more intuitive for clinical decision-making.
For example: "There is a 98.5% probability that semaglutide 2.4mg produces >10% weight loss vs placebo" is more actionable than "RR 3.4, 95% CI 2.8-4.1, p<0.001."
The the trial evidence evidence is strong under both frameworks, but Bayesian analysis better communicates the degree of certainty for individual patient counseling.