Apr 28, 2026 at 3:24 AM#36
One thing that is still open after james_edin’s answer:
How would you tell the difference between that and the alternative explanation?
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Apr 29, 2026 at 7:17 AM#37
DoseLogDan said:Say what you would expect to see if you were wrong, before you look.
Pushing back on DoseLogDan here. This treats a plausible mechanism as a demonstrated one. Plausible is where you start looking, not where you stop.
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Apr 30, 2026 at 11:10 AM#38
DoseLogDan said:Say what you would expect to see if you were wrong, before you look.
Agreed on the substance. I would put less weight on the timescale, because two months of anything is not enough to distinguish a trend from a wobble.
Happy to go further on any of that.
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View ResultsMay 1, 2026 at 3:04 PM#39
DoseLogDan said:Say what you would expect to see if you were wrong, before you look.
That reframing is the part I needed. Sending this to two other people who asked me the same thing last week.
Last edited: May 1, 2026 at 4:04 PM
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May 2, 2026 at 6:59 PM#40
Adding the clinical framing, because it changes how the question reads. There is a difference between no evidence and evidence of no effect, and this subject is one where the two get swapped freely in both directions.
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