I stopped wanting wine and I was NOT prepared for that

Dr.KarenChen said:

It helps to ask what evidence would change your mind before you look at any.

Worth saying that the confident version of this is more useful to the person writing it than to the person reading it.

The figures, for anyone assembling their own picture. The boring version of this is the one that works, and the boring version is: measure a baseline, change one variable, wait, measure again under the same conditions. Nobody wants that answer and it is still the answer.

BariatricNurseD said:

Worth saying that the confident version of this is more useful to the person writing it than to the person reading it.

There is a second half to this that has not been said yet. The version of this that has an answer is narrower than the version being asked. Narrow it and it becomes tractable; leave it broad and the thread will produce nine confident and incompatible replies.

One thing that is still open after MikeKY_noInsulin’s answer:

How would you tell the difference between that and the alternative explanation?

Reporting back.

Late follow-up. I did not do what was suggested, I did something adjacent, and it worked; posting the difference in case it matters to somebody.