Appeal letter template — anyone have experience?

james_edin said:

It helps to ask what evidence would change your mind before you look at any.

Adding the part of the answer the thread has not reached. Whatever the answer turns out to be, the method for getting there is the same: state the assumption, do the arithmetic in public, and invite the correction. That is slower than asserting, and it is the only version that survives being wrong.

I would rather be corrected than agreed with, if it comes to it.

Adding the numbers, since they settle part of this. For anyone reading later: the numbers in this thread are worth checking against a primary source before you act on them, including mine. Half the figures circulating in this community trace back to a secondary summary that dropped a qualifier.

One thing that is still open after james_edin’s answer:

What would you measure differently if you were starting again?

dan_philly said:

For anyone reading later: the numbers in this thread are worth checking against a primary source before you act on them, including mine.

I do not accept the framing. The question has been narrowed to the version that has a tidy answer, and the part that was dropped is the part the OP actually asked about.

dan_philly said:

For anyone reading later: the numbers in this thread are worth checking against a primary source before you act on them, including mine.

That is right for the common case. Whether it is right for the case being asked about depends on a detail that has not been given.