VanRx_Mike said:The honest answer is that the effect is real, the magnitude is contested, and the individual variation is larger than either.
Coming at VanRx_Mike’s question from a different direction. It is worth asking what the claim would look like if it were false. If nothing would look different, it is not a claim about the world and no amount of discussion will settle it.
If somebody has the primary source to hand I would rather cite it than paraphrase it.